A probabilistic life-cycle assessment of carbon emission from magnesium phosphate cementitious material with uncertainty analysis

Abstract

This study aims to quantify the carbon emission intensity of magnesium phosphate cementitious materials to explore its potential in carbon emission reduction. However, comprehensive research on the lifecycle carbon emissions of these materials remains scarce, plagued by issues of data uncertainty, accessibility, and scoping discrepancies. Therefore, a probabilistic lifecycle assessment approach was adopted in this study, enabling uncertainty analysis of the carbon emission intensity of magnesium phosphate cementitious materials. The findings indicate that the 10.5th percentile of the carbon emission intensity simulations for MPC stands at 0.624 kgCO2e/kg, suggesting that nearly 90% of the values surpass those of OPC, thereby refuting the presumption of its low-carbon attributes. Notably, the consumption and carbon emission factors of magnesium oxide and soluble phosphates emerge as pivotal influences on its carbon emissions. Additionally, a multiple linear regression model was employed to forecast the correlation between the constituents of magnesium phosphate cementitious materials and the volume of carbon emissions. Through this study, we can have a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental performance of magnesium phosphate cementitious materials in terms of carbon emission reduction, which will provide an important support for the selection and design of future green building materials.