Nonlinear Effect of Digital Economy on Carbon Emission Intensity—Based on Dynamic Panel Threshold Model

Abstract

Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, it is vital to study the impact of digital economy on carbon emission reduction. Based on a provincial panel data from 2013 to 2019, this paper establishes a dynamic panel model, a dynamic spatial autoregressive model, and a dynamic threshold model to study the impact of digital economy on carbon emission intensity. Our findings show that digital economy has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity. Results of regional heterogeneity show that the central region can transform the impact of digital economy on carbon emission reduction more efficiently. After adding the time lag term of carbon emission intensity, the impact coefficient of digital economy is still significant. Carbon emission intensity has obvious spatial effect, and the carbon emission of adjacent areas will significantly inhibit local carbon emission reduction activities. Under the threshold of innovation and environmental regulation, the emission reduction effect of digital economy is different. For regions with low technological level, digital economy is difficult to give full scope to its emission reduction advantages. At the same time, stricter environmental regulations can cooperate with digital economy to accelerate regional carbon emission reduction. Therefore, China should continue to improve the construction of digital infrastructure and promote the reform and innovation of enterprise digital technology in order to release the carbon emission reduction effect of digital economy.