Abstract

AbstractForecasting the time of arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection at Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e. the error associated to the estimate. Here a statistical approach to the computation of the time of arrival using the Drag-Based Model is proposed through the introduction of probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast.

Highlights

  • Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are violent phenomena of solar activity with repercussions throughout the entire heliosphere. Their manifestations into interplanetary space are responsible for major geomagnetic storms, the prediction of the arrival of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU is one of the primary subjects of the space-weather forecasting (e.g. Daglis, 2001; Schrijver and Siscoe, 2010)

  • Another approach is represented by numerical MHD-based models of the heliospheric propagation of ICME, generally requiring a detailed knowledge of the state of the heliosphere and large computational facilities

  • For the sake of clarity, we specify that in this work the terms CME and ICME are referred to the plasma and magnetic field structure expelled from the Sun, without the shock that precedes it

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Summary

Introduction

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are violent phenomena of solar activity with repercussions throughout the entire heliosphere. The last category, somewhat lying in between the previous ones, is that employing an MHD- or HD-based simplified description of the interactions an ICME may be subjected to during its interplanetary travel Gopalswamy et al (2000); Vrsnak and Gopalswamy (2002); Michalek et al (2002); Schwenn et al (2005) Such an approach leads to analytical models or empirical models which require modest computational power. Those models assume a morphology (either simple as in Möstl et al (2011) or more complex as in Isavnin (2016)), a fixed direction and a velocity evolution for the CME and can predict an arrival time and speed from relatively limited initial information on the CME onset conditions. For the sake of clarity, we specify that in this work the terms CME and ICME are referred to the plasma and magnetic field structure expelled from the Sun, without the shock that precedes it

General description
The probabilistic drag-based model
PDFs for the input quantities
P-DBM step-by-step
The dataset
Validation of the P-DBM
Findings
Conclusions and future work
Full Text
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