Abstract
The statistical correlation between meteorological parameters and the spread of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) was investigated in five provinces of Italy selected according to the number of infected individuals and the different trends of infection in the early stages of the epidemic: Bergamo and Brescia showed some of the highest trends of infections while nearby Cremona and Mantova, showed lower trends. Pesaro–Urbino province was included for further investigation as it was comparably affected by the epidemic despite being the area far from the Po valley. Moving means of the variables were considered to take into account the variability of incubation periods and uncertainties in the epidemiological data. The same analyzes were performed normalizing the number of new daily cases based on the number of checks performed. For each province, the moving mean of adjusted and unadjusted new daily cases were independently plotted versus each meteorological parameter, and linear regressions were determined in the period from 29th of February 2020 to 29th of March 2020. Strong positive correlations were observed between new cases and temperatures within three provinces representing 86.5% of the contagions. Strong negative correlations were observed between the moving means of new cases and relative humidity values for four provinces and more than 90% of the contagions.
Highlights
On 31th of December 2019, pneumonia of unknown etiology was first reported by the offices of theWorld Health Organization (WHO) in China [1]
Here we present the results of Pearson’s analysis related to outdoor temperature and relative humidity. Only for these meteorological parameters, results showed significant statistical correlations, and in most cases related probability values were much lower than 5% [36]
The most inclusive and impressive results are the values of Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) found for the time series related to the number of new daily infected individuals within the five selected Italian provinces, the daily mean temperatures as monitored at the related capitals, and the daily mean relative humidity values observed at the same stations
Summary
World Health Organization (WHO) in China [1]. This disease was labelled as Coronavirus Disease-2019. Taxonomy, and established practice, Gorbalenya et al [3] have marked the related virus of COVID-19 disease as severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2. SARS-CoV-2, as in the case of another zoonotic coronavirus originated in the early. The human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus has been reported via close unprotected contact with infected droplets and fomites, whereas the airborne transmission is considered possible only for specific circumstances and settings in the hospital context [5]. In the early 2000s, SARS transmission was controlled through quarantine, social distancing, travel restrictions, and contact precautions since no specific vaccines or drugs existed for this new pathogen
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