A Preliminary Forecast Study of the North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones Using a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are severe weather marvels, occur in warm tropical waters. These phenomena are among the most influential atmospheric-oceanic events in subtropics regions as the northern part of the Indian Ocean, affecting the Arabian Sea and the Oman Sea, which often cause severe damage to the coastal areas. The interaction between the atmosphere and the upper ocean plays an important role in the structure of TCs, in which successful connections between ocean circulations and the intensity and track of TCs have been identified. TCs derive their energy primarily from the release of latent heat through evaporation and sea spraying in the atmosphere boundary layer. This implies that the presence of a moisture source, with sufficiently warm sea surface temperature (frequently above 26°C) is required to sustain the flux of moisture from the ocean to the atmosphere. The most visible effect of TC passage is the cooling of the sea surface temperature (SST) as the response of the ocean mixed layer (OML) temperature. This decrease in SST has a negative feedback on the intensity of TCs, as it suppresses the heat exchange flux between the atmosphere and the ocean, consequently it can affect the TC track.To investigate the effect of the temperature field on TCs structure, TC Shaheen (2021) with unusual track and entry into the Gulf of Oman is studied. In this regard, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used with two different configurations. First, WRF was ran standalone and SST field was only adopted from global models as initial conditions and were not updated during the simulation. Then, as the second configuration, WRF model was coupled with an ocean finite volume model and the SST field was updated online during the simulation. The initial conditions of the ocean temperature, salinity and velocity field were taken from GOFS 3.1 global reanalysis product from the HYCOM Consortium. Primary result for the selected event implies that SST correction during TC simulation with WRF improves air-sea heat flux and has a pronounced effect on the TCs’ intensity and track predictions. Cold wake underside of the TC led to a remarkable heat flux loss from ocean surface into the storm. Hence, the TC size is reduced and the maximum wind speed of the storm is intensified.