A Predictive Analysis of the Organized Retail Market in India Using Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Technique

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The study aims to predict the size of the Indian organized retail market for future years. Most previous studies provided descriptive insights into the development of the organized retail industry without specifying any forecasting methods and approaches used in their predictions. This study attempts to employ the Holt-Winter exponential smoothing method for analyzing the Indian organized retail sector, a novel approach in this domain. The investigation began with a sales forecast for the preceding twenty-one years of data using different combinations of α and β coefficients. The best model was selected based on the α and β values that yielded the minimum statistical errors, as measured by MAD, MAPE, and MSE. The forecast results indicate a projected CAGR of 13.23% for the Indian organized retail market size over the next six years. The findings will provide retail marketers the latest market trends to inform sound business planning.