A Prediction of the Construction Area of Residential Real Estate in Shenzhen Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract

The real estate markets are an important component of Chinese economy structure which is worth to study and predict. This paper uses the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict the construction area of residential real estate in Shenzhen. The data is given by a convinced and reliable company CRIC. CRIC focuses on the Chinese real estate market for years. With the dataset from CRIC and based on the ARIMA methodology, the author gives a roughly prediction which shows that the construction area of residential real estate in Shenzhen will continuously rise in a short term. Serious of tests are invoked, such as white noise test and unit-root test etc. The author then draws a conclusion by those tests, which implies that the construction area of residential real estate in Shenzhen is worth to predict statically. And in the real-life dimension this prediction can provide a valuable reference to politicians and investors. For politicians, the prediction can help them make policy. And for investors, the prediction can help them maximize their benefits.