Abstract
Dementia is a geriatric disease which has emerged as a serious social and economic problem in an aging society and early diagnosis is very important for it. Especially, early diagnosis and early intervention of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) which is the preliminary stage of dementia can reduce the onset rate of dementia. This study developed MCI prediction model for the Korean elderly in local communities and provides a basic material for the prevention of cognitive impairment. The subjects of this study were 3,240 elderly (1,502 males, 1,738 females) in local communities over the age of 65 who participated in the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Aging (close) conducted in 2012. The outcome was defined as having MCI and set as explanatory variables were gender, age, level of education, level of income, marital status, smoking, drinking habits, regular exercise more than once a week, monthly average hours of participation in social activities, subjective health, diabetes and high blood pressure. The random Forests algorithm was used to develop a prediction model and the result was compared with logistic regression model and decision tree model. As the result of this study, significant predictors of MCI were age, gender, level of education, level of income, subjective health, marital status, smoking, drinking, regular exercise and high blood pressure. In addition, Random Forests Model was more accurate than the logistic regression model and decision tree model. Based on these results, it is necessary to build monitoring system which can diagnose MCI at an early stage.
Highlights
As worldwide aged population increases with the development of science, technology and medicine, number of geriatric diseases increases radically as well
This study analyzed a total of 3,240 elderly people (1,502 males and 1,738 females) over the age of 65 who participated in 2012 Korean Longitudinal Survey of Aging (KLoSA)
Random forests model predicted age, gender, level of education, level of income, subjective health, marital status, smoking, drinking, regular exercise and hypertension as risk factors for Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), and its accuracy was 72.1%
Summary
As worldwide aged population increases with the development of science, technology and medicine, number of geriatric diseases increases radically as well. Dementia, a typical geriatric disease, is expected to experience an unprecedentedly rapid increase. According to World Alzheimer Report (2015), worldwide dementia population recorded 44 million in 2013 and will increase more than 3-fold to 135 million in 2050 [1]. In Korea, dementia increases rapidly due to fast aging. According to a survey on prevalence rate of dementia conducted by Ministry of Health and Welfare, the number of dementia patients in Korea was 540,000 in 2012 and the number is expected rapidly increase to 840,000 in 2020, 1.27 million in 2030 and 2.71 million in 2050 [2]. As Korea shows the most rapid rate of increase in the world, it is urgent to take measures for geriatric cognitive impairment [3]
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