Abstract
Earthquakes have a damaging impact on the economic welfare and resilience of communities, particularly in developing countries. Seismic hazard assessment is the first step towards performing prevention, preparedness, and response or recovery actions to reduce seismic risk. This paper presents a computation tool for predicting the seismic hazard at the macro level as a part of a comprehensive multi-hazard framework on earthquake risk assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) procedure is based on the Monte-Carlo approach, and particular attention is paid to the definition of source zones assigned in the study area. Both Poisson and time dependent (renewal) models are adopted to quantify the effect of temporal dependencies between seismic events,while near-field rupture directivity effects are also taken into account. Marmara region in Turkey is selected as a case study area to perform a new seismic hazard analysis and verify the accuracy of the proposed tool. The results show good agreement with results from the recent SHARE project and the latest Turkish Earthquake Design code hazard maps. This confirms that the proposed PSHA method can be an attractive alternative to the direct integration based methods due to its practicality and powerful handling of uncertainties.
Highlights
Seismic risk is determined by combining the likelihood of seismic events over a predefined timeframe at a specific site or area/region and the consequences of this event on assets in the area
Hazard maps considering these models for PGA and spectral acceleration (SA) at T = 0.2 s and T = 1.0 s for a Probability of Exceedance (POE) of 10% and 2% in 50 years are generated for the region
To demonstrate the proposed computational tool, the Marmara region in Turkey is used as a case study area
Summary
Seismic risk is determined by combining the likelihood of seismic events over a predefined timeframe at a specific site or area/region and the consequences of this event on assets in the area. Whilst the occurrence of earthquakes cannot be predicted accurately, our current understanding of global tectonics and seismology allows us to make reasonable estimates of seismic hazard in most regions of the world. Detailed seismic risk estimation for a site/area is Extended author information available on the last page of the article. The seismic hazard at a site can be quantified by undertaking deterministic or probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) (Erdik 2017). A particular earthquake scenario, called controlling earthquake, is used to estimate hazard at a site. PSHA can be used to quantify the probability of exceedance of various ground motion levels at a site/region for different return periods of earthquakes. Contrary to the deterministic approach, the probabilistic approach can take into account all potential earthquake sources with the inclusion of uncertainties arising from earthquake size, location and occurrence time
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