A Poliheuristic Approach: Azerbaijan, Pipeline Politics and Smoldering Conflicts

Abstract

It is known that Azerbaijan is currently the fastest growing economy of the South Caucasus due to its natural resources, however,it is still struggling with ethnic tensionsand experiencing troublesnormalizing itsties with neighbor Armenia.In recent yearstensionshave sprung up again after fifteen years over the former Soviet oblast Nagorno-Karabakh. This paper will explore thereasons for decision-makers, in this case Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev, when making decisions that might seem irrationalfrom an outside perspective. Using Alex Mintz’ Poliheuristic theory of the decision model from ‘Applied Decision Analysis: UtilizingPoliheuristic Theoryto Explain and Predict Foreign Policy and National Security Decisions’in 2005, I will make an attempt tocometo an understanding of, and explain, Azerbaijan’sPresident Aliev’sdecision to refrain from using force regarding NagornoKarabakhafter 1993, and assess the possible use of force in the near future.