A poliheuristic analysis of South Korea’s responses towards North Korea’s missile tests

Abstract

The North Korean missile program has gained undeniable momentum in the twenty first century, highly sensitive to dialogues within the region. One could argue South Korea is accustomed to these repetitive launches splashing into the Pacific Ocean, at times nearing two dozen in a year, but the republic has its sets of policy alternatives when responding to the neighbor’s aggression. To understand South Korea’s decision-making mechanism, I utilize the ‘Poliheuristic Theory’ developed by Mintz. A decision matrix consisting of three policy alternatives (passive by-standing, reaching out, joint drills) is applied to three crisis moments from 2013, 2017, 2022. Primary and secondary sources like defense ministry press releases and news reports are used for data collection. The North’s tests are closely observed by the South but usually not responded to provocations. When South Korea decides to respond, the tendency is to carry the issue to the international audience by citing U.N. Convention, Armistice Agreement, etc. The presence of the U.S. military in the peninsula plays a crucial role, as seen from the remarkably increased tests after the U.S. declared it would lessen military involvement. Several domestic and regional criteria (the Sunshine Policy, eventual unification possibility, U.S. military presence, asymmetrical capabilities, regional status quo) has possible influence over leaders’ responses.