A performance of SIR Model in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia based on different phase of COVID-19 outbreaks

Abstract

Since December 2019, COVID-19 has quickly taken on a massive global form led to the World Health Organization (WHO) classified COVID-19 as a pandemic outbreak as a result. Due to a lack of information about the virus and the absence of medical services in the community during the early stages of this outbreak, the coronavirus spread quickly. Consequently, it becomes extremely difficult to control the influence of the disease outbreak. Thus, this study was aim to predict the peak numbers of the infected population on the first, the second, the third waves and endemic phase by utilizing a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) predictive model between 25th January and 16th February 2020, corresponding to the entire first wave, the second, between 27th February 2020 and 30th June 2020, corresponding to part of the second wave, the current third wave began on 7th September 2020 and 1st April 2022, corresponding to the endemic phase, still present at the time of writing this article. The model retrieved the data from a reliable source on the Internet and its design is based on certain assumptions. The estimated reproductive value in this model for all simulations is 5.1, which are interconnected factors that have contributed to the rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. This led to the outbreak of a highly contagious disease. The number of infected populations increase with the rate of disease transmission rate of infected increases and vice versa and the spread of COVID-19 from first, second, third waves and endemic reached maximum level in a very short time. The COVID-19 endemic in Malaysia is predicted to peak by the early of March 2020 for the first wave, mid of April 2020 for the second wave, early of October 2020 for the third wave and around April 22, 2022, for the endemic phase. The peak infected was predicted at 16,280,000 persons out of a total of susceptible individuals 33,573,874. Therefore, in addition to maintaining control measures at least until the anticipated peak time has passed, proper crisis management and efficient resource use are essential for successfully combating the endemic.