A Numerical Study of the Effect of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

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Abstract The impact of dissipative heating on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts is investigated using the U.S. Navy’s operational mesoscale model (the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System). A physically consistent method of including dissipative heating is developed based on turbulent kinetic energy dissipation to ensure energy conservation. Mean absolute forecast errors of track and surface maximum winds are calculated for eighteen 48-h simulations of 10 selected TC cases over both the Atlantic basin and the northwest Pacific. Simulation results suggest that the inclusion of dissipative heating improves surface maximum wind forecasts by 10%–20% at 15-km resolution, while it has little impact on the track forecasts. The resultant improvement from the inclusion of the dissipative heating increases to 29% for the surface maximum winds at 5-km resolution for Hurricane Isabel (2003), where dissipative heating produces an unstable layer at low levels and warms a deep layer of the troposphere. While previous studies depicted a 65 m s−1 threshold for the dissipative heating to impact the TC intensity, it is found that dissipative heating has an effect on the TC intensity when the TC is of moderate strength with the surface maximum wind speed at 45 m s−1. Sensitivity tests reveal that there is significant nonlinear interaction between the dissipative heating from the surface friction and that from the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation in the interior atmosphere. A conceptualized description is given for the positive feedback mechanism between the two processes. The results presented here suggest that it is necessary to include both processes in a mesoscale model to better forecast the TC structure and intensity.