A Numerical Study for Tropical Cyclone Atsani (2020) Past Offshore of Southern Taiwan under Topographic Influences

Abstract

Tropical Cyclone Atsani occurred in late October 2020 and moved westward offshore south of Taiwan. During its offshore passage, the cyclone deflects northward as it closes to the southern end of Taiwan. A global model MPAS at a multi-resolution of 60-15-3-km is applied to explore the track responses of Atsani and identify the topographic effects of the Central Mountain Range (CMR) on the cyclone circulation and the associated track deflection. With a 3-km resolution targeted at the Taiwan area, the cyclone track deflection can be reasonably simulated, with more sensitivity to physics schemes and dynamic vortex initialization and less sensitivity to initial environmental perturbations. When the Taiwan terrain is removed, the cyclone indeed deflects more northward earlier, in particular for simulations with a stronger cyclone that tends to generate stronger east-west wind asymmetry in the absence of the terrain. Idealized simulations with a regional model WRF at 3-km resolution are also utilized to contrast the track deflection of different departing cyclones, similar to the real case. It was found that northward deflection will be induced near south of the CMR-like terrain for both stronger and weaker westbound cyclones departing at different latitudes south of the terrain. We have explained why a further northward track at earlier stages is induced in the absence of the terrain effects in regard to model initial states. In both real and idealized cases, the track deflection of the cyclone moving around the terrain is dominated by the wavenumber-one horizontal potential vorticity (PV) advection that is somewhat offset by both vertical PV advection and differential diabatic heating.