A Comparative Modeling Study of Supertyphoons Mangkhut and Yutu (2018) Past the Philippines with Ocean-Coupled HWRF

Abstract

The ocean-coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system was used to investigate the evolution of Supertyphoons Mangkhut and Yutu (2018) over the Philippines Sea and near landfall in the northern Philippines. The simulation results indicate that Mangkhut at a deepening stage has a smaller track sensitivity to the use of different physics schemes but greater intensity sensitivity, which becomes reversed for Yutu at a weakening stage. When both upstream tracks are well simulated with some specific suite of physics schemes, sensitivity experiments indicate that both track deviations near the northern Philippines are only weakly modified by the air–sea interaction (ocean-coupled or uncoupled processes), the topographic effects of the Philippines terrain (retained or not), and the initial ocean temperature change along both typhoon tracks. The interactions between the internal typhoon vortex and the large-scale flow play an important role in the overall movement of both typhoons, which were explored for their structural and convective evolutions near the terrain. The wavenumber-one potential vorticity (PV) tendency budget of the typhoon vortex was analyzed to explain the induced typhoon translation from different physical processes. The west-northwestward translation for the stronger Mangkhut near the northern Philippines is primarily induced by both horizontal and vertical PV advection but with the latter further enhanced to dominate the northward deflection when closing in to the terrain. However, the northwestward translation and track deflection near landfall for the weaker Yutu are driven by the dominant horizontal PV advection. Differential diabatic heating is relatively less important for affecting the movement of both typhoons near landfall.