A numerical procedure for computing the fragility of NPP components under random seismic excitation

Abstract

A numerical procedure is proposed in the paper for computing seismic fragility functions for equipment components in Nuclear Power Plants. The procedure is based on the hypothesis, which is typical when seismic excitation of components is addressed, of linear behaviour of the building. Given the large size of the FE element models adopted for the building, which makes direct Monte Carlo simulation impossible, the response surface methodology is used to model the influence of the random variables on the dynamic response. To account for stochastic loading the latter is estimated by means of a simulation procedure. Once the response surfaces defining the statistical properties of the response are available, the Monte Carlo method is used to compute the failure probability. A procedure for refining the RS estimation is also proposed, based on the evaluation of risk for a prototype site. A validation example is given, regarding the simplified modelling of a reactor building resting on a base-isolation system; results obtained by plain Monte Carlo analysis are compared to those computed via the proposed procedure The latter is finally applied to a real life case, taken from the preliminary design of the auxiliary building within the IRIS international project.