A novel water resources management method based on system dynamics model

Abstract

The SD model we established analyzes and predicts the WRCC under four different water use modes. The results show that continuing with the present water use mode, the WRCC in Beijing will be very fragile, and cannot meet the demand of social economic development of the city in the future. As a result, the urban population will reduce gradually since 2010 and the city size will shrink. When the measures of water saving, wastewater water reuse and water transfer from other basins are implemented separately, it is still difficult to maintain rapid development of the industrial and agricultural output values as it failed to carry planned urban population growth. Only when all the measures are implemented jointly, i.e., to build a water-saving society, as well as reuse wastewater water and transfer water from other basins, the indexes of WRCC will improve steadily. In this case, the industrial output value, agricultural output value and urban population will reach their maximums in 2020.