A Novel Strategic Aircraft Track Planning Method Considering Conflict Probability

Abstract

Generally, air track planning is conducted in real time and takes modified track distance minimization as objective. Next-generation air transport systems provide aircrafts with more flexibility in track planning and more responsibilities in self-separation, which present a great challenge for aircraft optimal track planning, especially in some high-density airspaces and some complex conflict scenarios. This paper proposes a novel aircraft track planning method by taking aircraft conflict probability into consideration. First, the concepts of aircraft potential motion space and the estimation method for aircraft conflict probability is introduced. Then, taking conflict probability minimization as the objective, the classical ant colony algorithm (ACA) algorithm is improved to solve the model. Finally, an experimental study is conducted to illustrate the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method is able to provide a scientific and effective track planning approach considering the potential conflict probability of aircrafts, which is able to provide fundamental to the safety of entire air transport system.