A novel solar irradiance forecasting method based on multi-physical process of atmosphere optics and LSTM-BP model

Abstract

Prediction of solar irradiance is crucial for minimizing energy costs and ensuring high power quality in electrical power grids that incorporate distributed solar photovoltaic generation. Traditional methods have focused mainly on time series prediction of irradiance or studies of the relationship between irradiance and environmental factors at a given moment. This paper presents a novel global horizontal irradiance forecasting method based on multi-physical process of atmosphere optics and LSTM-BP model. In the proposed method, cloud fraction, cloud albedo and aerosol optical thickness are selected as critical characteristic factors in the sunlight-atmosphere interaction. Long-short term memory (LSTM) is utilized to extract temporal features of the critical characteristic factors in various physical processes of atmospheric optics and predict their values. Subsequently, back propagation (BP) neural network is constructed to investigate the relationship between these characteristic factors and global horizontal irradiance under a given point in time. The global horizontal irradiance is predicted by combining the predicted values of critical characteristic factors and BP neural network for modelling irradiance decay process. To demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed model, the results obtained by the proposed method are compared with those of the LSTM network model for time series forecasting, in which six error evaluation indicators are used in the comparison. The proposed method for solar irradiance forecasting is verified in different time scales and under various weather conditions and shows better accuracy comparing with time series forecasting methods.