A novel score predictor for atrial fibrillation in cardiac implantable electronic device patients

Abstract

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) in individuals with cardiac implantable electronic devices is associated with heightened risks of adverse outcomes. Despite this, risk stratification for AF development in this patient cohort remains unexplored. Consequently, we present the development and validation of a simplified multi-parameter risk-based scoring system for predicting AF in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices. Methods and Results A cohort of 226 consecutive patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices at Rajavithi Hospital underwent comprehensive follow-up to observe AF development, defined by 12-lead EKG evidence of AF. Analysis encompassed risk factors and AF incidence. The resulting V-DASH score integrated a History of vascular disease, including coronary artery disease (CAD) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD) (1.5 points), Diabetes (1 point), Apical lead position (1 point), Sex (female gender (1.5 points)), and Hypertension (1 point). Predictive value assessment revealed that Diabetes, Female gender, and a history of vascular disease were significantly associated with AF incidence. Apical lead position and Hypertension emerged as robust risk factors for AF development. Over a median follow-up duration of 13 months, 8 (3.53%) patients developed AF. The incidence of AF exhibited a noteworthy escalation in correlation with the V-DASH score (4.68 times higher risk per point increase). Among patients with a V-DASH score ≥4, the probability of AF occurrence was 97.34%. The V-DASH score demonstrated exceptional predictive capability (area under the curve, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.79–1.00), calibration ability (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit P=0.552), and accuracy (sensitivity 87.50% and specificity 83.94%), surpassing other clinical scores such as the C2HEST score. Conclusions The V-DASH score emerged as a robust predictor of AF incidence in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices, with the highest risk observed in those with a V-DASH score ≥4. The potential clinical utility of the V-DASH score in this patient population warrants further investigation.ROC curve for predicting AFPerformance calibration plot