A novel probabilistic load model and probabilistic power flow

Abstract

A precise planning and operation of the power system requires an accurate load model that account for the load stochastic nature. In addition, the probabilistic power flow is a vital tool for power system engineers. Hence, this paper presents a novel probabilistic load model that models the load with an average load curve in addition to a probabilistic error around this average value. The goodness of fit tests are used to find the best fit PDF to model that error. A probabilistic power flow algorithm is presented, this algorithm employs the proposed load model and solves the power flow using the forward/backward sweep technique.