A Novel Predictor of Pathologic Complete Response for Neoadjuvant Immunochemotherapy in Resectable Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Abstract

Neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy (nICT) for resectable locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LA-ESCC) has attracted widespread attention recently, whose safety and clinical benefit was observed in clinical researches. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel predictor systemic inflammation-tumor markers index (SITI) to predict the pathological complete response (pCR) for resectable LA-ESCC patients receiving nICT. A total of 147 LA-ESCC patients who underwent nICT followed by surgery from February 2020 to April 2022 were included in the study. The dynamic change of inflammatory indexes was compared at baseline, after two cycles of nICT and postoperative one month. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to avoid collinearity and identify key indexes, with SITI constructed. After univariate and multivariate stepwise forward logistic analyses, a nomogram for pCR prediction was developed. 41(27.9%) patients achieved pCR among 147 resectable LA-ESCC patients received nICT. Compared with baseline, most inflammatory indexes were significantly decreased at postoperative one month. 5 key indexes were identified and then a predictive index named SITI was constructed. The result showed that lower SITI and earlier clinical tumor node metastasis (cTNM) stage were more likely to achieve pCR. The nomogram for pCR prediction had excellent discrimination performance (C-index = 0.791). The SITI is an independent predictor for pCR in resectable LA-ESCC patients received nICT. To our knowledge, our nomogram is the first model using systemic inflammation-tumor markers for pCR prediction and may be a promising predictor to effectively differentiate pCR for nICT in LA-ESCC patients.