A novel method to estimate the maximization ratio of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using regional climate model output

Abstract

AbstractThe moisture maximization approach has a simple technique for controlling the risk of overestimating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP): the maximization ratio is limited by an upper bound. The upper bound limit depends on storm records and watershed characteristics. However, it is not readily available in many watersheds. A robust scientific justification for limiting the maximization ratio is missing. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed to estimate the maximization ratio which does not impose an upper limit. The new approach, which uses regional climate model data, is based on constructing annual maximum precipitable water time series with precipitable water values for which atmospheric variables are similar to the original event to be maximized. These time series are then used to estimate the 100 year return period of the precipitable water value required to calculate the ratio. The new approach was tested in three watersheds in the province of Québec, Canada. Results showed that maximization ratio values were lower than the proposed upper bound value for these watersheds. In comparison to the approach using an upper bound, the proposed approach reduced the PMPs in these watersheds by 11%.