Abstract
Given the flammability of power cables and the high cost of utility tunnel construction, power cable fires cause serious economic losses and are associated with a negative social impact. In the study, a weighted fuzzy Petri net and an event tree are combined to propose a quantitative evaluation method to mitigate cable fire risks in a utility tunnel. First, cable fire risk factors are analyzed. Given the lack of utility tunnel cable fire historical data, fuzzy theory is used to calculate the failure probability of the primary event. Second, a weighted fuzzy Petri net is used for fuzzy reasoning, and an event tree is used to analyze all possible consequences. Subsequently, the numerical simulation method is used to quantify the loss from the cable fire and thereby quantify the risk of cable fire. Finally, the effect of different risk factors on a cable fire is analyzed to determine the main factors that affect cable fires. Simultaneously, the control ability of different control measures with respect to the fire is analyzed to determine key control measures. A case study of a utility tunnel cable cabin in Liupanshui in Guizhou is employed to validate the utility of the proposed method.
Highlights
Given the rapid development of cities, explosive growth of urban populations, and the demand for urban aesthetics, cables that were previously erected over the city and pipes within cities are no longer acceptable. e use of underground space satisfies the needs of the abovementioned urban development [1]
A risk analysis of cable fire for the utility tunnel is conducting through this method, and the evolution process of the cable fire failure accident from causes to consequences is presented explicitly
Weighted Fuzzy Petri Net. e Petri net was proposed by Professor Petri and exhibits significant advantages in describing system concurrency, asynchronous, distribution, parallelism, and uncertainty. e weighted fuzzy Petri net consists of a Petri net and fuzzy logic and weighting factors and is formally defined as a 10-tuple as follows [23]: WFPN {P, T, I, O, D, M, U, R, α, W}, (1)
Summary
Given the rapid development of cities, explosive growth of urban populations, and the demand for urban aesthetics, cables that were previously erected over the city and pipes within cities are no longer acceptable. e use of underground space satisfies the needs of the abovementioned urban development [1]. A few risk quantitative analysis methods provide ideas for solving the above problems including the Bayesian network, evidence theory, and Petri nets. A weighted fuzzy Petri net is used to simulate a complex cable fire process. A risk analysis of cable fire for the utility tunnel is conducting through this method, and the evolution process of the cable fire failure accident from causes to consequences is presented explicitly.
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