A novel hybrid systemic modeling into sustainable dynamic urban water metabolism management: Case study

Abstract

Over the past few years, due to increasing population, limited water resources, and other pressures on the urban water systems (UWS), urban water management has become a major concern for urban policymakers to develop efficient management solutions. In this study, a new hybrid model called sustainable dynamic urban water metabolism management (SDUWMM) is presented, based on urban water metabolism and system dynamics. Isfahan's UWS has been modeled by SDUWMM and its conditions have been simulated until 2041. SDUWMM considers effective internal relationships of the UWS components such as population, climate change, water supply and demand, infrastructures condition, water price, costs and revenues and social behaviour. The model analyzed impacts of increasing water price, capacity building and social awareness, drought, change in rehabilitation rate and installing conserving fixtures on debt and water shortage. According to the study results, due to high inflation rates and annual rise in costs, achieving financial sustainability is quite challenging. Under optimum conditions, the debt can be reduced up-to 30%, but water shortage can be reduced up-to 200% in 2041. SDUWMM helps a better understanding and more holistic assessments of the performance of UWS for Isfahan's water supply decision-makers, and its methodology is applicable to other cities.