A novel early stage drip irrigation system cost estimation model based on management and environmental variables

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One of the most significant, intricate, and little-discussed aspects of pressurized irrigation is cost estimation. This study attempts to model the early-stage cost of the drip irrigation system using a database of 515 projects divided into four sections the cost of the pumping station and central control system (TCP), the cost of on-farm equipment (TCF), the cost of installation and operation on-farm and pumping station (TCI), and the total cost (TCT). First, 39 environmental and management features affecting the cost of the listed sectors were extracted for each of the 515 projects previously mentioned. A database (a matrix of 515 × 43) was created, and the costs of all projects were updated for the baseline year of 2022. Then, several feature selection algorithms, such as WCC, LCA, GA, PSO, ACO, ICA, LA, HTS, FOA, DSOS, and CUK, were employed to choose the most significant features that had the biggest influence on the system cost. The selection of features was carried out for all features (a total of 39 features) as well as for easily available features (those features that existed before the irrigation system’s design phase, 18 features). Then, different machine learning models such as Multivariate Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Artificial Neural Networks, Gene Expression Programming, Genetic Algorithms, Deep Learning, and Decision Trees, were used to estimate the costs of each of the of the aforementioned sections. Support vector machine (SVM) and optimization algorithms (Wrapper) were found to be the best learner and feature selection techniques, respectively, out of all the available feature selection algorithms. The two LCA and FOA algorithms produced the best estimation, according to the evaluation criteria results. Their RMSE for all features was 0.0020 and 0.0018, respectively, and their R2 was 0.94 and 0.94. For readily available features, these criteria were 0.0006 and 0.95 for both algorithms. In the part of the overall feature, the early-stage cost modeling with selected features revealed that the SVM model (with RBF Kernel) is the best model among the four cost sections discussed. Its evaluation criteria in the training stage are R2 = 0.923, RMSE = 0.008, and VE = 0.082; in the testing stage, they are R2 = 0.893, RMSE = 0.009, and VE = 0.102. The ANN model (MLP) was found to be the best model for a subset of features in the easily available feature part, with R2 = 0.912, RMSE = 0.008, and VE = 0.083 in the training stage and R2 = 0.882, RMSE = 0.009, and VE = 0.103 in the testing stage. The findings of this study can be utilized to highly accurately estimate the cost of local irrigation systems based on the recognized environmental and management parameters and by employing particular models.