A novel dynamic structural adaptive multivariable grey model and its application in China's solar energy generation forecasting

Abstract

Accurately predicting China's solar energy generation is crucial for energy planning and environmental protection. However, the nonlinearity and complexity of the data pose challenges to prediction. This article proposes a dynamic structural adaptive multivariate grey model to overcome these challenges. The model constructs a dynamic nonlinear correction function with an uncertain structure that can adaptively adjust to the data characteristics. Additionally, the Gaussian function is utilized to derive the time response function, overcoming the mechanism defects present in traditional multivariate grey models. The whale optimization algorithm is applied to optimize the background value of the model, improving accuracy. The model is compatible with 14 classical models via parameter changes and has strong compatibility. The results show that the fitting error and test error of the model are 0.23 % and 1.95 % respectively, which is significantly better than the other 11 methods, indicative of strong robustness and accuracy. The forecast indicates that China's solar energy generation will experience a consistent upward trajectory from 2023 to 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 12.11 %. This study significantly contributes to the advancement of the theory of multivariate grey dynamic prediction and provides essential data support for strategic planning within China's solar power industry.