A novel belief rule base expert system with interval-valued references

Abstract

As an essential parameter in the belief rule base (BRB), referential values refer to evaluation criteria for describing attributes using quantitative data or linguistic terms, the rationality and preciseness of which are important to the modeling accuracy. At present, the studies on referential values of BRB are mainly related to single-valued data. However, due to the inherent uncertainty, ambiguity, and vagueness of expert knowledge, the single-valued references provided by experts cannot represent qualitative information adequately. In this paper, a novel BRB with interval-valued references (BRB-IR) is proposed, in which qualitative knowledge and quantitative data can be integrated to construct models. First, the interval-valued referential values provided by experts are optimized by a nonlinear optimization algorithm to obtain the optimal referential values. Furthermore, other model parameters are optimized by the projection covariance matrix adaptation evolutionary strategy (P-CMA-ES) algorithm. Finally, a case study for pipeline leak detection is constructed to verify the model's effectiveness, and the results show that the proposed BRB-IR is more effective and characterizes expert knowledge better than the classical BRB using single-valued references.