A novel and dynamic land use/cover change research framework based on an improved PLUS model and a fuzzy multiobjective programming model

Abstract

Spatial reconstruction and scenario simulation of historical processes and future trends of land use/cover change (LUCC) can help to reveal the historical background of land conversion and the spatial distribution of future land. Moreover, there is a close relationship between the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover and changes in different ecosystem services (ESs). Using this relationship to simulate future land use scenarios is important. In this study, an LUCC dynamic analysis framework (LSTM-PLUS-FMOP) was constructed based on a deep learning time series forecasting model (LSTM), a parallelized urban land use simulation (PLUS) model and a fuzzy multiobjective programming (FMOP) model. The PLUS model was used to analyze the driving mechanism of land expansion and explore the land conversion pattern. In addition, three land conversion scenarios were established: natural land expansion (NLE), economic development priority (EDP) and regional sustainable development (RSD). The FMOP model and the relationship between LUCC and ES were used to perform a spatial simulation of land conversion. The uncertainty parameters in the model were treated by intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFSs). This study applied the constructed framework to the Yellow River Basin of Shaanxi Province (YRB-SX). The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the cropland area of the YRB-SX continuously decreased by 12.67 × 104 ha, while the built-up area continuously increased by 28.25 × 104 ha. The net reduction in woodland and grassland area was 13.90 × 104 ha. (2) The relative error range of land prediction using the LSTM model was 0.0003– 0.0042. This model had better accuracy than the Markov chain prediction model. (3) The cropland area decreased by 0.26% (NLE), 0.85% (EDP) and 1.68% (RSD) under the three scenarios. The built-up area increased by 25.01%, 32.76% and 14.72%, respectively. The RSD scenario followed the principles of ecological protection and spatial constraints, which mitigated the degradation of the ecosystem to some extent. This coupled simulation framework will help to obtain land allocation schemes that meet the requirements of ecological protection and provide solutions for rational land management.