A(nother) Cosmic Wager: Pascal, METI, and the Barn Door Argument

Abstract

ABSTRACTThere is growing debate about whether we should attempt to message extraterrestrials (METI). Much of the debate has focused on the level of risk posed and in particular, the barn door argument (BDA), holds that aliens would already know about us and thus there is little harm that could come from messaging. In this article, I examine the basic logic of BDA by comparing it with Pascal's Wager. These are both intuitive appeals that try to sidestep the empirical debate, but on critical examination they are seen to fall prey to a number of similar problems.