Abstract
The 1971 and 1981 census journey-to-work data are used to examine the temporal and spatial stabilities of home-based work trip travel demands in the Toronto census metropolitan area (CMA). Regression analysis is used to establish consistent trip generation equations at the census tract level using population, household, and dwelling unit data; the stabilities of alternative equations over time are examined. All of the partial regression coefficients shifted over time, reflecting the substantial changes that have occurred in household structure, female labour force participation, and the characteristics of the housing market. The spatial distributions of the residuals are examined in terms of the spatial differentiation that exists in the household sector in the Toronto CMA in terms of variables such as household size, population age, and occupation status. The use of traditional trip generation techniques is difficult to sustain given the temporal and spatial variations in the trip generation rate. It is concluded that travel demands can only be estimated from a careful consideration of the residential dynamics of the major subareas in a region.
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