A note on the functioning of international commodity price stabilisation agreements in periods of fluctuating monetary exchange rates

Abstract

A belief held by many government officials and development economists is that sizeable and irregular commodity price fluctuations have important detrimental effects on both exporting and importing countries. Given the nature of these adverse effects attempts have been made to negotiate international price stabilisation agreements under which some central authority would make market interventions to offset the random price fluctuations. However, this study argues that the utility of such agreements should be re‐examined due to the effects of floating exchange rates. Empirical evidence is also presented which shows that recent exchange rate variability has had at least as much of a destabilising influence on commodity export earnings as fluctuating prices, and that the effects are borne unevenly by exporters of the same commodity due to their association with different currency blocks. When examined from the viewpoint of commodity importers the price and exchange rate effects are also found to be very different for individual countries.