A Nonergodic Ground Motion Model for Chile

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this study, we develop a new nonergodic ground motion model (GMM) for Chile, which better captures the trade-off between the aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty on ground motion estimates compared with existing GMMs. The GMM is developed for peak ground acceleration and pseudospectral acceleration at a period of 1 s. Most existing GMMs for subduction earthquake zones were developed based on an ergodic assumption, and this is not the exception for the subduction zone in Chile. Under the ergodic assumption, the ground motion variability at a given single site–source combination is considered the same as the variability observed in a global database. However, recent efforts have highlighted significant location-specific systematic and repeatable effects for ground motions recorded within a particular region. These systematic effects promote the relaxation of the ergodic assumption and the transition to the development of nonergodic GMMs. The nonergodic GMM developed in this study uses an ergodic GMM as a backbone, the systematic source and site effects are modeled using Gaussian processes, and the path effects are modeled using the cell-specific attenuation approach enhanced with a computer graphics-based algorithm. The coefficients of the nonergodic GMM are estimated using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, in which we use an integrated nested Laplace approximation approach to address the computational burden involved in MCMC. The developed nonergodic GMM reveals spatially varying and correlated location-specific source, path, and site effects in Chile, which cannot be captured by existing Chilean ergodic GMMs. Moreover, the developed nonergodic GMM shows a reduced aleatory variability compared to existing ergodic GMMs that are commonly used in Chile. In addition, the developed nonergodic GMM shows small epistemic uncertainty for regions with large ground motion data and large epistemic uncertainty for regions with few ground motion data. Finally, we provide guidelines on how to use the developed nonergodic GMM in the context of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which is important for performance-based earthquake engineering assessments in Chile.