A Nomogram to Predict Symptomatic Intracranial Hemorrhage After Intravenous Thrombolysis in Chinese Patients

Abstract

Background and AimsA reliable predictive score system to identify the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) in acute ischemic stroke patients is of great essence. We aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of sICH after IVT in Chinese patients.MethodsWe recruited acute ischemic stroke patients who were treated with IVT from five advanced stroke centers in China from April 2014 to November 2020. sICH was diagnosed according to the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II (ECASS-II) definition. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to construct the best-fit nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and calibration plot.ResultsA total of 1200 patients were enrolled, of whom 66 (5.5%) developed sICH. In the multivariate logistic regression model, atrial fibrillation (odds ratio [OR] 3.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.89−5.60; P < 0.001), baseline glucose level (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.07−1.20; P < 0.001), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01−1.09; P = 0.024) and baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04−1.10; P < 0.001) were independent predictors for sICH and were used to generate the nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination as the AUC-ROC value was 0.788 (95% CI, 0.737–0.840). The calibration plot revealed good calibration.ConclusionThe nomogram consisted of atrial fibrillation, baseline glucose level, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, and NIHSS score may predict the risk of sICH in Chinese acute ischemic stroke patients treated with IVT.