A nomogram model to predict recurrence of early-onset endometrial cancer after resection based on clinical parameters and immunohistochemical markers: a multi-institutional study.

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the prognosis value of the clinical parameters and immunohistochemical markers of patients with early-onset endometrial cancer (EC) and establish a nomogram to accurately predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) of early-onset EC after resection. A training dataset containing 458 patients and an independent testing dataset consisting of 170 patients were employed in this retrospective study. The independent risk factors related to RFS were confirmed using Cox regression models. A nomogram model was established to predict RFS at 3 and 5 years post-hysterectomy. The C-index, area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve were calculated to assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. In all early-onset EC patients, more than half (368/628, 58.6%) were diagnosed in the age range of 45-49 years. Meanwhile, the recurrence rate of early-onset EC is approximately 10.8%. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that histological subtype, FIGO stage, myometrial invasion, lymphovascular space invasion (LVSI), P53 expression, and MMR status were independent prognostic factors related to RFS (all P < 0.05) and established the nomogram predicting 3- and 5-year RFS. The C-index and calibration curves of the nomogram demonstrated a close correlation between predicted and actual RFS. Patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups according to the model of RFS. Combining clinical parameters and immunohistochemical markers, we developed a robust nomogram to predict RFS after surgery for early-onset EC patients. This nomogram can predict prognosis well and guide treatment decisions.