Abstract
BackgroundThe response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy has been proven to predict long-term clinical benefits for patients. Our research is to construct a nomogram to predict pathological complete response of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative breast cancer patients.MethodsWe enrolled 815 patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy from 2003 to 2015 and divided them into a training set and a validation set. Univariate logistic regression was performed to screen for predictors and construct the nomogram; multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors.ResultsAfter performing the univariate logistic regression analysis in the training set, tumor size, hormone receptor status, regimens of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy were the final predictors for the construction of the nomogram. The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that T4 status, hormone receptor status and receiving regimen of paclitaxel and carboplatin were independent predictors of pathological complete response. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training set and the validation set was 0.779 and 0.701, respectively.ConclusionsWe constructed and validated a nomogram to predict pathological complete response in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative breast cancer patients. We also identified tumor size, hormone receptor status and paclitaxel and carboplatin regimen as independent predictors of pathological complete response.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2652-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
The response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy has been proven to predict long-term clinical benefits for patients
Our current study aims to construct and validate a well-fitting nomogram based on multivariate logistic regression to evaluate the impact of different neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimens as well as the impact of several other variables on the Pathological complete response (pCR) rate among human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) negative patients in a prospective cohort
Patient characteristics Of the 815 HER2 negative patients enrolled in this study, 111 (13.6 %) reached pCR (Table 1)
Summary
The response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy has been proven to predict long-term clinical benefits for patients. Our research is to construct a nomogram to predict pathological complete response of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative breast cancer patients. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy has several advantages compared with adjuvant chemotherapy [2]. It increases the rate of breast conservation and offers the opportunity for patients with locally advanced breast cancer to receive surgery. Sensitivity to Pathological complete response (pCR) has been confirmed to predict long-term clinical benefit for patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy and can serve as a dependable endpoint when investigating the efficiency of different treatment regimens [3]. The pCR rate of HER2 negative patients is relatively
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