Abstract
Abstract. In this study we use the term moisture transport for precipitation for a target region as the moisture coming to this region from its major moisture sources resulting in precipitation over the target region (MTP). We have identified changes in the pattern of moisture transport for precipitation over the Arctic region, the Arctic Ocean, and its 13 main subdomains concurrent with the major sea ice decline that occurred in 2003. The pattern consists of a general decrease in moisture transport in summer and enhanced moisture transport in autumn and early winter, with different contributions depending on the moisture source and ocean subregion. The pattern is statistically significant and consistent with changes in the vertically integrated moisture fluxes and frequency of circulation types. The results of this paper also reveal that the assumed and partially documented enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes as a consequence of increased moisture from climate change seems to be less simple and constant than typically recognised in relation to enhanced Arctic precipitation throughout the year in the present climate.
Highlights
The shrinking of the cryosphere since the 1970s is among the most robust signals of climate change identified in the last IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013)
We focus on identifying the patterns of moisture transport for precipitation in the Arctic region (AR), the Arctic Ocean (AO) as a whole, and its 13 main subdomains, which fit better with sea ice decline
This study shows that a drastic Arctic sea ice decline occurred in 2003 and that this decline was accompanied by a change in the moisture transport from the main Arctic moisture sources, which results in changes in the precipitation over the Arctic (MTP)
Summary
The shrinking of the cryosphere since the 1970s is among the most robust signals of climate change identified in the last IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013). Changes in atmospheric circulation can affect SIE via dynamical (e.g. changes of surface winds) or thermodynamic (i.e. changes in heat and moisture fluxes in the Arctic; Tjernström et al, 2015; Ding et al, 2017) factors Among these effects, change in moisture transport has emerged as one of the most important with respect to the greenhouse effect (Koenigk et al, 2013; Graversen and Burtu, 2016; Vihma et al, 2016), and is related to SIE decline through hydrological mechanisms such as changes in Arctic river discharges (Zhang et al, 2012), radiative mechanisms such as anomalous downward longwave radiation at the surface (Woods et al, 2013; Park et al, 2015a; Mortin et al, 2016; Woods and Caballero, 2016; Lee et al, 2017), or meteorological mechanisms such as changes in the frequency and Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
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