Abstract
A stochastic model to describe the vertical motions in the Campi Flegrei volcanic region is proposed herein, consisting of a Brownian motion process driven by a generalized telegraph process. Knowledge on the probability law of this process enables quantitative investigation of some basic parameters regulating the inflation/deflation processes, such as velocities and time constants. Statistical analysis was carried out based on linear regression with constraints. Predictions of ground displacements and their changing tendency at future time instants were also made. Finally, a statistical test on the Brownian component of the process confirmed the goodness of the model.
Published Version
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