A new method of nowcasting extreme cosmic ray events

Abstract

ABSTRACT The daily observations of the cosmic ray intensity carried out by the Athens Neutron Monitoring Station in Greece during the period 1 January 2010 to 14 January 2022 are analysed for the study of the observed extreme events. The high values of this parameter were found to obey the Gutenberg-Richter scaling, which has already been identified in several meteorological parameters. Based on this finding a new nowcasting method has been developed herewith for extreme cosmic rays’ events that may cause interference to telecommunications and problems with transportation and water supply, as well as several disasters. For the development of this nowcasting model, the innovative domain of ‘natural time’ has been employed. Moreover, using the data provided by the Cosmic Rays Database, a power–law relation was found that connects the cosmic ray flux and the particle total energy corresponding to a future cosmic ray event with high intensity. This model will make a major contribution to the further development of ways to prevent, prepare for and deal with potential damages following extreme cosmic rays’ events.