A new hybrid multi-criteria decision-making approach for developing integrated energy systems in industrial parks

Abstract

The integrated energy system (IES) has been regarded as a promising energy supply solution due to its high efficiency and low emissions. However, various IES composition schemes exhibit different performance, and decision-makers or stakeholders have experienced difficulty in selecting the most appropriate alternative. This paper aims to develop a multi-criteria decision-making method for a selection problem involving integrated energy system composition schemes in Zhejiang Province, China. As existing research has neglected the interaction between criteria and ignored the subjective risk attitude, this paper proposes a new method based on modified fuzzy integral and prospect theory. First, the criteria’s weights are calculated by the Mahalanobis-Taguchi Gram-Schmidt method; the λ fuzzy measures of these criteria are then calculated based on the φs transformation function and weights. This approach not only considers both subjective and objective information, but also eliminates overlapping information between criteria. Second, based on the grey correlation degree and the prospect theory, a prospect decision matrix is obtained that considers decision-makers’ subjective risk attitudes. Finally, the alternatives are scored using a fuzzy integral. The results reveal that a complimentary solar and wind based system is the preferred scheme in project construction. Further, comparison and sensitivity analyses verify the proposed model’s validity and feasibility, and some suggestions are given to further develop the IES.