Abstract
Oil production and water cut prediction is one of the most important research contents of reservoir production performance analysis. The growth curve method has the advantages of the general water drive curve method and the combined solution model method with fewer parameters and simple and fast calculation process and so it has been widely used in well production prediction. Based on the analysis of 4W and 4Y4 model growth curves, a new generalized growth curve of the well production performance is proposed. The new model can forecast cumulative oil production, annual oil production, and water cut at different oilfield development periods. A MATLAB program was developed to derive the parameters in the new model. The built model was applied to the production data of the Samattalol oilfield and Daqing oilfield. The predicted cumulative oil production, annual oil production, and water cut are all close to the actual production data, and satisfactory results are obtained, which demonstrates the practicability and reliability of the new model.
Highlights
Water flooding is the most common oilfield development technology around the world
Since the water drive curve method was proposed in the 1980s, there have been about 50 kinds of water drive curves, but many water drive curves have certain limitations in calculating different types of reservoirs, and the calculation accuracy is not high and the calculation results sometimes differ greatly [9,10,11,12,13,14]
Based on the previous studies about the growth curve model, combined with the 4W and 4Y4 types of growth curve, the new prediction model of annual oil production, cumulative oil production, and water cut are established. e reliability of these built models is verified by the actual production data of the Samottorol oilfield and Daqing oilfield
Summary
Water flooding is the most common oilfield development technology around the world. With the oilfields gradually entering the stage of medium or high water cut, accurate prediction of reservoir production performance is very important for reservoir engineers to formulate reasonable measures to stabilize oil production and control water production and to adjust oilfield development plans [1,2]. The main methods to predict the annual oil production and water cut of the reservoir include numerical reservoir simulation, water drive curve, and analytical model. The method is only suitable for predicting the production of reservoirs with water cut greater than 70% which conforms to the characteristics of type A water drive [17]. Based on the correlation between the oil-water relative permeability ratio and water saturation, a new water-flooding type curve was created by combination with the conventional reservoir engineering methods [19,20,21]. Based on the previous studies about the growth curve model, combined with the 4W and 4Y4 types of growth curve, the new prediction model of annual oil production, cumulative oil production, and water cut are established. Based on the previous studies about the growth curve model, combined with the 4W and 4Y4 types of growth curve, the new prediction model of annual oil production, cumulative oil production, and water cut are established. e reliability of these built models is verified by the actual production data of the Samottorol oilfield and Daqing oilfield
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
