Mathematical Prediction of Production Performance of Water Flooding Oil Field using Growth Curves

Abstract

The oil production and water cut prediction is one of the most interesting research area of the reservoir production performance analysis. In this research, the focus was to use the growth curve method, and the main reason behind selecting this particular method is that it has the advantages of the general water drive curve method. Also, the fast and simple calculation with fewer parameters and the combined solution model method, widely used in production prediction, are two advantages. There are two growth curves, i.e., 4W and 4Y4, and based on the analysis of these two model growth curves, a new generalized growth curve has been proposed for the well production performance. A new model will be developed that should be efficient and feasible in predicting cumulative oil production, annual oil production, and water cut at different oilfield development periods. So, this research will use software, a Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) programme will be developed to derive the parameters of the new model that is to be proposed in this work. Two oil fields will be chosen for the test case of our new model to check its vitality when it is applied to the production data of the Samattalol and Daqing oilfields situated in China. The new model will predict the cumulative oil production, annual oil production, and water cut closer to the actual production data, and satisfactory results will be obtained according to our hope, which would showcase the reliability and practicability of the new model.