A New Dynamic Prediction Method and its Application in Prediction of the Colluvial Landslides Induced by Rainfall

Abstract

A lot of data indicates that rainfall has always played the very important role in landslide triggering. The paper discusses rainfall as a dynamic parameter in term of the load/unload response ratio theory, using the Xintan landslide as a case study. Analysis of the available data indicates that the occurrences of landslides in this region are controlled by rainfall, whose intensity and rainfall processes are the most important dynamic factors in determining the stability of slopes. Therefore, the relationship between rainfall and the movement of typical landslides has been specifically analyzed for the Xintan landslides by using the loading/unloading response ratio parameter of rainfall. The result of this study indicates that the mutation of the loading/unloading response ratio of rainfall of the Xintan landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir regions, China occurred just before their destabilization, which shows that the loading/unloading response ratio of rainfall and its changing feature can be taken as a precursor for the landslides induced by rainfall.