Abstract
This essay sketches an account of extrapolation in terms of analogical reasoning that generalizes the notion of comparative process tracing. The account offered here relies on something known as chain graphs, which are used to explicate the role of “fingerprints,” or distinctive markers, as a strategy for avoiding an underdetermination problem having to do with spurious analogies. Moreover, I show how the extrapolator's circle, one of the central challenges for extrapolation, is closely tied to distinctive markers and the Markov condition as it applies to chain graphs.
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