Abstract
As in other hilly and mountainous regions of the world, the hillslopes of Bujumbura are prone to landslides. In this area, landslides impact human lives and infrastructures. Despite the high landslide-induced damages, slope instabilities are less investigated. The aim of this research is to assess the landslide susceptibility using a probabilistic/statistical data modeling approach for predicting the initiation of future landslides. A spatial landslide inventory with their physical characteristics through interpretation of high-resolution optic imageries/aerial photos and intensive fieldwork are carried out. Base on in-depth field knowledge and green literature, let’s select potential landslide conditioning factors. A landslide inventory map with 568 landslides is produced. Out of the total of 568 landslide sites, 50 % of the data taken before the 2000s is used for training and the remaining 50 % (post-2000 events) were used for validation purposes. A landslide susceptibility map with an efficiency of 76 % to predict future slope failures is generated. The main landslides controlling factors in ascendant order are the density of drainage networks, the land use/cover, the lithology, the fault density, the slope angle, the curvature, the elevation, and the slope aspect. The causes of landslides support former regional studies which state that in the region, landslides are related to the geology with the high rapid weathering process in tropical environments, topography, and geodynamics. The susceptibility map will be a powerful decision-making tool for drawing up appropriate development plans in the hillslopes of Bujumbura with high demographic exposure. Such an approach will make it possible to mitigate the socio-economic impacts due to these land instabilities
Highlights
Tropical Africa, especially the East African Rift Valley region is more susceptible to landslides [1]
Steep topography associated with uplifting, high weathering tropical environment, and tectonic fault systems would be the main cause of slow-moving deep-seated landslides of the region [3]
The landslide susceptibility achieved with 568 landslides and eight conditioning factors is assessed
Summary
Tropical Africa, especially the East African Rift Valley region is more susceptible to landslides [1]. Heavy rainfalls with rapid weathering partly explain the high distribution of landslides [2]. Steep topography associated with uplifting, high weathering tropical environment, and tectonic fault systems would be the main cause of slow-moving deep-seated landslides of the region [3]. One of the reasons for this landslide data-scarcity is the low capacity of the local government [6]. Spatial landslides data collection is constrained with persistent clouds and rapid vegetation growth which hinder an obvious interpretation of satellite images/aerial photos [7,8,9] and the difficult conditions of field accessibility [5]
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