A New Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Ship Collision with Riverside Bridges

Wei Zhang,Wenwen Luo,Liping Wang,Bo Geng,Shuoyu Liu,Zhenxing Zheng,Claudio Mazzotti

doi:10.1155/2020/8357494

Abstract

The configuration of riverside bridges, such as the spatial distribution, wading status, and ship accessibility of piers, is generally different from river-crossing bridges. Thus, the ship collision risk of riverside bridges cannot be assessed using conventional assessment methods applicable to river-crossing bridges. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to develop a new probabilistic method for assessing the risk of ship collision with riverside bridges. First, a fully probabilistic framework for assessing the ship-bridge collision risk is presented. Second, a new probabilistic hazard analysis model of ship collision with riverside bridges is proposed, based on a combined study of riverside bridge characterization and an improved yaw ship collision model. A simplified empirical model for evaluating ship-bridge collision force is then adopted, and the probabilistic distribution of the collision force is obtained based on Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, finite element simulation is conducted to estimate the collapse probability of piers. Finally, the method developed is applied to the probabilistic assessment of ship collision risk with riverside bridges located at Shabin Road, Chongqing, China. The results show that the risk of ship-bridge collision at Shabin Road is low to moderate. The example demonstrated indicates that the methodology introduced in this paper is capable of assessing the ship-bridge collision risk in a concise and rapid way.

Highlights

Ere are several existing methods for assessing the shipbridge collision risk, which can be broadly classified into three categories, namely, the fault tree method [1], fuzzy integrated method [2, 3], and probability-based method. e fault tree method is purely dependent on empirical data; yet, comprehensive historical data are usually difficult to obtain in engineering practice
Macduff [4] calculated the theoretical probability of collision between ships based on the statistical results of ship-ship collisions, and Fujii and Shiobara [5, 6] studied the ship grounding in several Japanese channels based on statistical analyses. e two works above laid the foundation for the study of ship-bridge collision
Ning et al [10] investigated the demand of shear-critical reinforced concrete columns, and Gen et al [11] developed a risk assessment system for bridges against vessel impacts

Summary

Introduction

Based on the framework of collision assessment developed by AASHTO, a new approach, which incorporates the wading probability and an improved yaw ship collision model, is developed to assess the risk of the collision between ship and riverside bridges.

Probabilistic Model of Ship-Bridge Collision Force

Collapse Probability of Piers

Application of the Proposed Approach for Risk Assessment

Section E Section D Section C Shabin Road