A national fire behaviour knowledge base for enhanced information management and better decision making

Abstract

Accurate prediction of bushfire behaviour is essential for effective fire management. Such knowledge allows for the timely determination of the potential threat and impacts of a fire and provides the basis for sound fire-management decision-making. Fire behaviour prediction combines quantitative and qualitative information sources that are based on scientific principles and personal experience describing the combustion and behaviour of fire in a range of weather, fuel and topographic conditions. 'Amicus', the National Fire Behaviour Knowledge Base, is a new software-based tool under development that endeavours to provide a unique framework in which each of these information sources is accessible and utilisable in a consistent and comprehensive manner for the sole purpose of operational prediction of the behaviour of bushfires by trained fire behaviour analysts. The Amicus system comprises four primary components: fuel description, fuel moisture models, wind models and fire behaviour models and uses these to predict fire characteristics (e.g. rate of spread, flame height, fireline intensity, onset of crowning, spotting potential) for a broad range of burning conditions. This paper details the current development of the fire behaviour component of Amicus and its proposed integration with the Australian Bushfire Fuel Classification System being developed for use across all Australian jurisdictions. The fire behaviour component will integrate a suite of fire behaviour models covering the main Australian fuel types: eucalyptus forests, exotic pine plantations, grasslands and shrublands. Further development of Amicus will integrate the fire weather, fuel dynamics, and suppression capability knowledge and science to help fire managers better predict bushfire behaviour and better plan prescribed burns.