A Multivariate Time Series Modeling of Major Economic Indicators in Nigeria

Abstract

One of the key objectives of every good economy, whether or not developing or developed is to achieve a high and sustainable economic growth rate coupled with the economic indicators. The research on the Multivariate Time Series Modeling of Major Economic Indicators in Nigeria, aims at providing quantitative analysis of the dynamics on currency in circulation, exchange rate, external reserve, gross domestic product, money supply and price deflator. This study utilizes secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Statistical Bulletin (vol. 21: 2010), of all variables investigated in the model. The sample covers quarterly data from 1981 to 2010. The study employed the newly developed multivariate time series estimation technique via Vector Autoregressive modeling to model the economic indicators in Nigeria. The empirical result yields a stable and sustainable economic model for the six economic variables in the study. The Granger causality analysis indicates that there exists unidirectional and bidirectional causality between the economic variables. Gross domestic product and external reserve was seen as a good predictor to other economic indicators. The relationship between these economic indicators is however significantly determined which is positive in either direction. The empirical model provides forecast value for the next two years.