A Multiscale‐Model‐Based Near‐Term Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

AbstractNear‐term prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of great importance to formulate the long‐term plans for mitigating the potential TC‐induced damages. Here, we introduce a multi‐timescale regression model of TC genesis frequency (TCGF), which includes contributions by three interannual modes (El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature anomalies over the eastern Indian Ocean and tropical North Atlantic), two interdecadal modes (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation), and a global warming mode. The model is shown to be able to capture well the present‐day multi‐timescale changes in TCGF in the major TC basins in the Northern Hemisphere. By combining the model and 100‐member simulations by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, we predict a robust increase in TCGF over the eastern North Pacific, an insignificant increase over the western North Pacific, and little change over the North Atlantic during 2020–2030 relative to 2009–2019.