A Multi-Level Fuzzy Evaluation Method for the Reliability of Integrated Energy Systems

Abstract

With the increase in environmental pressure and rapid development of renewable energy technologies, an integrated energy system has been recognized as an effective approach to accommodate large-scale renewables and achieve environmental sustainability. While an integrated energy system significantly improves energy efficiency, the interaction between different energy systems may also bring multiple operational risks to its reliability, which necessitates an effective reliability assessment technique. In this paper, we proposed a multi-level fuzzy evaluation model based on combined empowerment for the reliability evaluation of an integrated energy system. The analytic hierarchy process method and entropy weight method were used to calculate the weight of each index in the evaluation model. Fuzzy evaluation matrix was constructed by the membership degree of a single factor, which was defined by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The multi-level fuzzy evaluation results were obtained based on single-level evaluation results. Finally, case studies were carried out based on a practical integrated energy system; we proposed 5 first-level indicators such as reliability and economy and 12 second-level indicators such as mean time of incapacity. The simulation results (85.15) showed the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed model.